Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: US Open - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 21 August 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY) 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Belgium	23:55	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia And Herzegovina	23:55	HBO Max
Bulgaria	00:55	HBO Max
Croatia	23:55	HBO Max
Czech Republic	23:55	HBO Max
Denmark	23:55	HBO Max
Finland	00:55	HBO Max
France	23:55	HBO Max
Hungary	23:55	HBO Max
Moldova	00:55	HBO Max
Montenegro	23:55	HBO Max
Netherlands	23:55	HBO Max
North Macedonia	23:55	HBO Max
Norway	23:55	HBO Max
Poland	23:55	HBO Max
Romania	00:55	HBO Max
Serbia	23:55	HBO Max
Slovenia	23:55	HBO Max
Spain	23:55	HBO Max
Sweden	23:55	HBO Max


	Carol Zhao		Lucrezia Stefanini

	1	2
	3	1.36
	2.95	1.36
	2.98	1.37
	2.81	1.45
	2.84	1.40	Watch
	2.75	1.4
	2.73	1.44	Watch
	2.52	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↓ (2.88)	1.41 ↓ (1.42)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carol Zhao
33.3%

Lucrezia Stefanini
66.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33%

67%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

70.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carol Zhao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Lucrezia Stefanini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carol Zhao than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lucrezia Stefanini than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	0%	90.9%

Carol Zhao - Lucrezia Stefanini Predictions

Users Predictions: Lucrezia Stefanini will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lucrezia Stefanini will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Zhao is ranked WTA: 230. Stefanini is ranked WTA: 149.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Zhao may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Stefanini is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carol Zhao
WTA US Open
19.08.25	Maria Lourdes Carle - Carol Zhao	0:2 ✺
WTA Cincinnati
06.08.25	Leolia Jeanjean - Carol Zhao	2:1 ✺
WTA Montreal
26.07.25	Elsa Jacquemot - Carol Zhao	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
24.07.25	Carol Zhao - Janice Tjen	0:2 ✺
22.07.25	Sara Daavettila - Carol Zhao	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLLLW
- Lucrezia Stefanini
WTA US Open
19.08.25	Vitalia Diatchenko - Lucrezia Stefanini	0:2 ✺
WTA Prague
23.07.25	Marie Bouzkova - Lucrezia Stefanini	2:0 ✺
21.07.25	Viktoriya Tomova - Lucrezia Stefanini	0:2 ✺
20.07.25	Lucrezia Stefanini - Alena Kovackova	0:2 ✺
19.07.25	Lucrezia Stefanini - Caroline Werner	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WLWLW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lucrezia Stefanini
ATP Challenger
29.10.26	Lucrezia Stefanini - Ayla Aksu	✺

Carol Zhao - Lucrezia Stefanini