Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Casper Ruud		Matteo Berrettini

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
			Watch
	1.66	2.18	Watch
	1.69	2.29
	1.65	2.19	Watch
	1.69	2.19	Watch
	1.61	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.61)	2.21 ↑ (2.2)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casper Ruud
57.1%

Matteo Berrettini
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.7%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casper Ruud has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Matteo Berrettini has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
43.5%	0%	56.5%

Casper Ruud - Matteo Berrettini Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Ruud will win (votes: 9 - 40.9%). Berrettini will win (votes: 13 - 59.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Berrettini: 38.6% – 79.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Ruud (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Berrettini (votes: 7 - 46.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Games - Ruud (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Ruud (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Berrettini (votes: 7 - 43.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ruud is ranked ATP: 12. Berrettini is ranked ATP: 56.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ruud won 2.

Ruud has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ruud may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Ruud won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.3:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Casper Ruud - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 57.74%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casper Ruud
ATP Tokyo
25.09.25	Casper Ruud - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:1 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
19.09.25	Casper Ruud - Reilly Opelka	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
27.08.25	Raphael Collignon - Casper Ruud	3:2 ✺
25.08.25	Sebastian Ofner - Casper Ruud	0:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
09.08.25	Casper Ruud - Arthur Rinderknech	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLWL
- Matteo Berrettini
ATP Tokyo
23.09.25	Jaume Munar - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
18.09.25	Matteo Berrettini - Dalibor Svrcina	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
30.06.25	Matteo Berrettini - Kamil Majchrzak	2:3 ✺
Exhibition Hurlingham Men
26.06.25	Matteo Berrettini - Luciano Darderi	2:1 ✺
ATP Roma
12.05.25	Matteo Berrettini - Casper Ruud	Berrettini M. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLLW?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roma
12.05.25	Matteo Berrettini - Casper Ruud	Berrettini M. retired
ATP United Cup
02.01.23	Matteo Berrettini - Casper Ruud	2:0
ATP US Open
06.09.22	Matteo Berrettini - Casper Ruud	0:3
ATP Gstaad
24.07.22	Casper Ruud - Matteo Berrettini	2:1
ATP Madrid
08.05.21	Casper Ruud - Matteo Berrettini	0:2
ATP Roma
19.09.20	Matteo Berrettini - Casper Ruud	1:2
ATP US Open
05.09.20	Matteo Berrettini - Casper Ruud	3:0

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