Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 September 2025, Thursday


	Casper Ruud		Shintaro Mochizuki

	1	2
	1.4	3	Watch
			Watch
	1.38	2.95	Watch
	1.42	3.04
	1.35	3.08	Watch
	1.4	2.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↑ (1.3)	3.01 ↓ (3.36)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casper Ruud
68.4%

Shintaro Mochizuki
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.2%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casper Ruud has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Shintaro Mochizuki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	0%	41.7%

Casper Ruud - Shintaro Mochizuki Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ruud will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Mochizuki will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ruud: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Casper Ruud will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ruud is ranked ATP: 12. Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 105.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Mochizuki may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ruud is the team to beat.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casper Ruud
ATP Laver Cup
19.09.25	Casper Ruud - Reilly Opelka	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
27.08.25	Raphael Collignon - Casper Ruud	3:2 ✺
25.08.25	Sebastian Ofner - Casper Ruud	0:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
09.08.25	Casper Ruud - Arthur Rinderknech	1:2 ✺
ATP Toronto
02.08.25	Karen Khachanov - Casper Ruud	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLWLL
- Shintaro Mochizuki
Davis Cup World Group
13.09.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Jan-Lennard Struff	Canceled ✺
12.09.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Yannick Hanfmann	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
28.08.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Alex De Minaur	0:3 ✺
26.08.25	Hugo Gaston - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:3 ✺
22.08.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Daniel Elahi Galan	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 ?LLWW

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