Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 12 May 2025, Monday


	Matteo Berrettini		Casper Ruud

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.25	1.62	Watch
	2.4	1.57	Watch
	2.34	1.67
	2.3	1.61	Watch
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.4	1.59	Watch
	2.4	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.32)	1.61 ↓ (1.62)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Berrettini
40.8%

Casper Ruud
59.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

58.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

64.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Berrettini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Casper Ruud has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Berrettini than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matteo Berrettini that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casper Ruud than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Casper Ruud could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.3%	0%	70.7%

Matteo Berrettini - Casper Ruud Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Berrettini will win (votes: 12 - 29.3%). Ruud will win (votes: 29 - 70.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ruud: 56.8% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Berrettini (votes: 8 - 44.4%). Ruud (votes: 10 - 55.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 23 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2.5 Games - Ruud (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Berrettini (votes: 8 - 42.1%). Ruud (votes: 11 - 57.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Berrettini is ranked ATP: 30. Ruud is ranked ATP: 7.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Berrettini won 2.

In recent matches, Berrettini has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ruud is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Ruud may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ruud is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Ruud will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Berrettini won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.3:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Casper Ruud - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 58.88%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Berrettini
ATP Roma
10.05.25	Matteo Berrettini - Jacob Fearnley	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
29.04.25	Jack Draper - Matteo Berrettini	Berrettini M. retired ✺
26.04.25	Marcos Giron - Matteo Berrettini	1:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
10.04.25	Matteo Berrettini - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
08.04.25	Alexander Zverev - Matteo Berrettini	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 W?WLW
- Casper Ruud
ATP Roma
10.05.25	Alexander Bublik - Casper Ruud	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
04.05.25	Casper Ruud - Jack Draper	2:1 ✺
02.05.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
01.05.25	Casper Ruud - Daniil Medvedev	2:0 ✺
29.04.25	Taylor Harry Fritz - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP United Cup
02.01.23	Matteo Berrettini - Casper Ruud	2:0
ATP US Open
06.09.22	Matteo Berrettini - Casper Ruud	0:3
ATP Gstaad
24.07.22	Casper Ruud - Matteo Berrettini	2:1
ATP Madrid
08.05.21	Casper Ruud - Matteo Berrettini	0:2
ATP Roma
19.09.20	Matteo Berrettini - Casper Ruud	1:2
ATP US Open
05.09.20	Matteo Berrettini - Casper Ruud	3:0
ATP Roland Garros
29.05.19	Matteo Berrettini - Casper Ruud	0:3

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