Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 21 August 2025, Thursday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max


	Christian Garin		Marco Trungelliti

	1	2
	1.29	3.5
	1.28	3.5
	1.3	3.42
	1.32	3.45
	1.27	3.66	Watch
	1.33	3.25
	1.32	3.33	Watch
	1.48	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.48)	3.32 ↑ (2.45)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Christian Garin
71.5%

Marco Trungelliti
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.3%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Christian Garin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Christian Garin's performance.

Marco Trungelliti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Marco Trungelliti might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (-12.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Christian Garin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marco Trungelliti than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Marco Trungelliti could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	0%	7.1%

Christian Garin - Marco Trungelliti Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 Games - Garin (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Christian Garin will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Christian Garin will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Garin (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Garin is ranked ATP: 127. Trungelliti is ranked ATP: 183.

Garin is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Trungelliti's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Trungelliti may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Garin is a strong favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Christian Garin
ATP US Open
18.08.25	Christian Garin - Yosuke Watanuki	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
05.08.25	Martin Landaluce - Christian Garin	2:1 ✺
ATP Umag
21.07.25	Titouan Droguet - Christian Garin	2:0 ✺
ATP Bastad
16.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Christian Garin	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
03.07.25	Christian Garin - Arthur Rinderknech	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 WLLLL
- Marco Trungelliti
ATP US Open
18.08.25	Marco Trungelliti - Christopher Eubanks	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.08.25	Marco Trungelliti - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	0:2 ✺
ATP Umag
19.07.25	Marco Trungelliti - Luka Mikrut	0:2 ✺
ATP Gstaad
15.07.25	Francisco Comesana - Marco Trungelliti	2:0 ✺
13.07.25	Marco Trungelliti - Henry Bernet	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLLLW

Christian Garin - Marco Trungelliti: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide