Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open - Qualification, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 18 August 2025, Monday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)


	Christian Garin		Yosuke Watanuki

	1	2
	1.8	1.91
	1.62	2.2
	1.93	1.84
	1.72	2.16
	1.90	1.88	Watch
	1.62	2.2
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.53)	2.03 ↓ (2.38)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Christian Garin
53.5%

Yosuke Watanuki
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.9%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Christian Garin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Christian Garin's form might have worsened.

Yosuke Watanuki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Yosuke Watanuki's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Christian Garin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yosuke Watanuki than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Yosuke Watanuki, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Christian Garin - Yosuke Watanuki Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Garin will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Watanuki will win (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Yosuke Watanuki will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Garin is ranked ATP: 121. Watanuki is ranked ATP: 147.

Garin is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Watanuki has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Garin will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Christian Garin
ATP Cincinnati
05.08.25	Martin Landaluce - Christian Garin	2:1 ✺
ATP Umag
21.07.25	Titouan Droguet - Christian Garin	2:0 ✺
ATP Bastad
16.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Christian Garin	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
03.07.25	Christian Garin - Arthur Rinderknech	2:3 ✺
30.06.25	Christian Garin - Chris Rodesch	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLLLW
- Yosuke Watanuki
ATP Cincinnati
05.08.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Dalibor Svrcina	0:2 ✺
ATP Toronto
30.07.25	Francis Tiafoe - Yosuke Watanuki	2:1 ✺
28.07.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Daniel Altmaier	2:1 ✺
26.07.25	Dalibor Svrcina - Yosuke Watanuki	1:2 ✺
ATP Washington
20.07.25	Zachary Svajda - Yosuke Watanuki	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LLWWL

Christian Garin - Yosuke Watanuki: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide