Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Koblenz (Germany), hard (indoor) - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 January 2025, Tuesday


	Christoph Negritu		Francesco Maestrelli

	1	2
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.91	1.8
	2.03	1.7
	1.8	2.04
	1.73	2.04
	2	1.73	Watch
	1.76	1.97	Watch
	2.03	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2.15)	1.86 ↑ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Christoph Negritu
49.7%

Francesco Maestrelli
50.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

56.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

57%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Christoph Negritu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Christoph Negritu's performance.

Francesco Maestrelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Francesco Maestrelli might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Christoph Negritu than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Christoph Negritu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francesco Maestrelli than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Francesco Maestrelli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	0%	13.3%

Christoph Negritu - Francesco Maestrelli Predictions

Users Predictions: Christoph Negritu will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Negritu is ranked ATP: 343. Maestrelli is ranked ATP: 243.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Maestrelli could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Christoph Negritu
ATP Challenger
27.01.25	Christoph Negritu - Jakub Paul	2:0 ✺
26.01.25	Christoph Negritu - Stijn Slump	2:0 ✺
21.01.25	Beibit Zhukayev - Christoph Negritu	2:0 ✺
20.01.25	Christoph Negritu - Matej Dodig	2:1 ✺
05.01.25	Tiago Pereira - Christoph Negritu	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWLWL
- Francesco Maestrelli
ATP Challenger
14.01.25	Clement Tabur - Francesco Maestrelli	2:0 ✺
12.01.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Corentin Denolly	2:0 ✺
12.01.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Masamichi Imamura	2:1 ✺
07.01.25	Jie Cui - Francesco Maestrelli	2:0 ✺
06.01.25	Christian Langmo - Francesco Maestrelli	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWWLW

Christoph Negritu - Francesco Maestrelli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide