Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: French Open - Qualification, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 19 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Stade Roland-Garros (Paris)


	Colton Smith		Alvaro Guillen Meza

	1	2
	1.67	2.1
	1.59	2.21
	1.58	2.47
	1.56	2.36	Watch
	1.57	2.25
	1.59	2.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (2)	2.3 ↑ (1.73)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Colton Smith
59%

Alvaro Guillen Meza
41%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Colton Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Colton Smith's performance.

Alvaro Guillen Meza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alvaro Guillen Meza might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Colton Smith than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Colton Smith that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alvaro Guillen Meza than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alvaro Guillen Meza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Colton Smith - Alvaro Guillen Meza Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Smith will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Guillen Meza will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Smith: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Smith is ranked ATP: 190. Guillen Meza is ranked ATP: 230.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Guillen Meza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Alvaro Guillen Meza - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 53.62%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Colton Smith
ATP Challenger
14.05.26	Laslo Djere - Colton Smith	2:0 ✺
13.05.26	Colton Smith - Jack Pinnington Jones	2:0 ✺
11.05.26	Jurij Rodionov - Colton Smith	0:2 ✺
20.04.26	Kei Nishikori - Colton Smith	2:0 ✺
14.04.26	Colton Smith - Garrett Johns	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 LWWLL
- Alvaro Guillen Meza
ATP Challenger
11.05.26	Alvaro Guillen Meza - Josip Simundza	Guillen Meza A. Retired ✺
04.05.26	Alvaro Guillen Meza - Clement Chidekh	0:2 ✺
10.04.26	Pedro Boscardin Dias - Alvaro Guillen Meza	2:0 ✺
08.04.26	Pedro Sakamoto - Alvaro Guillen Meza	1:2 ✺
07.04.26	Franco Ribero - Alvaro Guillen Meza	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 ?LLWW

Colton Smith - Alvaro Guillen Meza: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide