Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Nottingham, grass - Quarter-finals

Date: 19 June 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Nottingham 🌤️ ... 🟢 Grass


	Colton Smith		Emilio Nava

	1	2
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
			Watch
	1.71	2.21
			Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.62	2.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.56)	2.26 ↓ (2.45)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Colton Smith
58.5%

Emilio Nava
41.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

61%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.2%

36.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Colton Smith has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Emilio Nava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colton Smith than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emilio Nava than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Colton Smith - Emilio Nava Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Smith will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Nava will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nava: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Smith (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Nava (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Smith is ranked ATP: 146. Nava is ranked ATP: 121.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Nava may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Smith is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Colton Smith
ATP Challenger
18.06.25	James McCabe - Colton Smith	1:2 ✺
17.06.25	Marco Trungelliti - Colton Smith	1:2 ✺
15.06.25	Colton Smith - James Kent Trotter	1:2 ✺
14.06.25	Colton Smith - Yosuke Watanuki	2:1 ✺
10.06.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Colton Smith	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLWL
- Emilio Nava
ATP Challenger
18.06.25	Emilio Nava - Ryan Peniston	2:0 ✺
17.06.25	Jack Pinnington Jones - Emilio Nava	1:2 ✺
12.06.25	Federico Cina - Emilio Nava	2:0 ✺
11.06.25	Andrej Martin - Emilio Nava	0:2 ✺
07.06.25	Guy Den Ouden - Emilio Nava	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWLWL

Colton Smith - Emilio Nava

Match Info

Current Win Probability

Who will win by Users?

Colton Smith - Emilio Nava Predictions

Preview

Form

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