Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain) - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 22 April 2024, Monday

Referee: Poncho A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 3
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis


	Constant Lestienne		Emilio Nava

	1	2
			Watch
	2.65	1.44
	2.7	1.42
	2.78	1.46
	2.78	1.47
	2.5	1.5
	2.69	1.44	Watch
	2.65	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.27)	1.45 ↓ (1.58)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Constant Lestienne
35.2%

Emilio Nava
64.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

59%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

59%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Constant Lestienne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Constant Lestienne's form might have worsened.

Emilio Nava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Emilio Nava's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Constant Lestienne than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Constant Lestienne, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emilio Nava than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Emilio Nava, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Constant Lestienne - Emilio Nava Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Lestienne will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Nava will win (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nava: 45% – 100%.

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Preview

Lestienne is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Nava is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Nava could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Nava will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Lestienne won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Constant Lestienne
ATP Estoril
02.04.24	Jaime Faria - Constant Lestienne	Canceled ✺
ATP Miami
18.03.24	Terence Atmane - Constant Lestienne	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
14.03.24	Luca Van Assche - Constant Lestienne	Lestienne C. retired ✺
13.03.24	Constant Lestienne - Roberto Carballes Baena	Carballes Baena R. retired ✺
ATP Indian Wells
08.03.24	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Constant Lestienne	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 ????L
- Emilio Nava
ATP Challenger
18.04.24	Ugo Blanchet - Emilio Nava	2:0 ✺
16.04.24	Mathys Erhard - Emilio Nava	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
21.03.24	Emilio Nava - Roberto Bautista-Agut	0:2 ✺
19.03.24	Yoshihito Nishioka - Emilio Nava	0:2 ✺
18.03.24	Emilio Nava - Quentin Halys	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
04.10.23	Constant Lestienne - Emilio Nava	2:0
19.08.23	Emilio Nava - Constant Lestienne	0:2

Constant Lestienne - Emilio Nava: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide