Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Francavilla, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 6 May 2025, Tuesday


	Corentin Denolly		Francesco Maestrelli

	1	2
	3	1.36	Watch
	2.75	1.4
	3	1.32	Watch
	3.23	1.36
	3.12	1.35	Watch
	3	1.36	Watch
	2.99	1.36	Watch
	3	1.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↑ (2)	1.35 ↓ (1.73)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corentin Denolly
31%

Francesco Maestrelli
69%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.8%

53.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corentin Denolly has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Corentin Denolly's form might have worsened.

Francesco Maestrelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Francesco Maestrelli's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corentin Denolly than the current prediction. (+15.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Corentin Denolly, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francesco Maestrelli than the current prediction. (-15.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Francesco Maestrelli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Corentin Denolly - Francesco Maestrelli Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Maestrelli (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Francesco Maestrelli will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Denolly is ranked ATP: 272. Maestrelli is ranked ATP: 296.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Denolly may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Maestrelli will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Denolly won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corentin Denolly
ATP Challenger
22.04.25	Oliver Crawford - Corentin Denolly	2:1 ✺
20.04.25	Corentin Denolly - Tristan McCormick	Canceled ✺
14.04.25	Corentin Denolly - Inaki Montes De La Torre	0:2 ✺
13.04.25	Corentin Denolly - Blaise Bicknell	2:0 ✺
08.04.25	Corentin Denolly - Dmitry Popko	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 L?LW?
- Francesco Maestrelli
ITF Tournaments
01.05.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Lorenzo Carboni	1:2 ✺
30.04.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Liam Broady	2:0 ✺
29.04.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Chirag Duhan	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
25.04.25	Matteo Gigante - Francesco Maestrelli	2:1 ✺
23.04.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Lorenzo Carboni	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
12.01.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Corentin Denolly	2:0

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