Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Washington, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 26 July 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Hungary	Match 4
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Sweden	TV4 Play
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Corentin Moutet		Alex De Minaur

	1	2
	5	1.17	Watch
	4.1	1.22	Watch
	4.9	1.17	Watch
	5.52	1.18
	4.65	1.19	Watch
	4.2	1.22	Watch
	4.68	1.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.72 ↑ (2.86)	1.19 ↓ (1.35)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corentin Moutet
20.2%

Alex De Minaur
79.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

67.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

70.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corentin Moutet has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Corentin Moutet's form might have worsened.

Alex De Minaur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alex De Minaur's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corentin Moutet than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Corentin Moutet, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alex De Minaur, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Corentin Moutet - Alex De Minaur Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - De Minaur (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +5.5 Games - Moutet (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Alex De Minaur will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alex De Minaur will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Moutet (votes: 1 - 16.7%). De Minaur (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Moutet is ranked ATP: 59. De Minaur is ranked ATP: 13.

Now, both players are in good form.

De Minaur may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, De Minaur is a strong favorite.

We predict that De Minaur will win today's game, with odds of 1.32.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Moutet won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corentin Moutet
ATP Washington
25.07.25	Daniil Medvedev - Corentin Moutet	1:2 ✺
24.07.25	Daniel Evans - Corentin Moutet	0:2 ✺
22.07.25	Alexandre Muller - Corentin Moutet	0:2 ✺
20.07.25	Corentin Moutet - Yibing Wu	1:2 ✺
20.07.25	Corentin Moutet - Karue Sell	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWWLW
- Alex De Minaur
ATP Washington
25.07.25	Alex De Minaur - Brandon Nakashima	2:0 ✺
24.07.25	Alex De Minaur - Jiri Lehecka	2:1 ✺
23.07.25	Alex De Minaur - Bu Yunchaokete	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
07.07.25	Alex De Minaur - Novak Djokovic	1:3 ✺
05.07.25	Alex De Minaur - August Holmgren	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Wimbledon
01.07.24	Corentin Moutet - Alex De Minaur	Canceled
ATP Challenger
09.11.16	Alex De Minaur - Corentin Moutet	2:0

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