Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday


	Daniel Merida Aguilar		Dane Sweeny

	1	2
			Watch
	1.61	2.18	Watch
	1.69	2.23
	1.59	2.29	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.65	2.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (2.25)	2.24 ↑ (1.6)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar
58%

Dane Sweeny
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

58.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

56.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Daniel Merida Aguilar's performance.

Dane Sweeny has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dane Sweeny might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-14.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Daniel Merida Aguilar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dane Sweeny than the current prediction. (+14.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dane Sweeny could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	0%	18.2%

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Dane Sweeny Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Sweeny will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Merida Aguilar: 59% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Sweeny (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Daniel Merida Aguilar will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Merida Aguilar (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Sweeny (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 139. Sweeny is ranked ATP: 131.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Merida Aguilar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Dane Sweeny - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 58.44%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Indian Wells
02.03.26	Patrick Kypson - Daniel Merida Aguilar	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.02.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Alejandro Moro Canas	1:2 ✺
13.02.26	Tom Gentzsch - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
11.02.26	Toby Samuel - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
10.02.26	Lorenzo Giustino - Daniel Merida Aguilar	Giustino L. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WLWW?
- Dane Sweeny
ATP Indian Wells
02.03.26	Andrew Johnson - Dane Sweeny	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
17.02.26	Dane Sweeny - Beibit Zhukayev	1:2 ✺
13.02.26	Hiroki Moriya - Dane Sweeny	2:0 ✺
11.02.26	Masamichi Imamura - Dane Sweeny	0:2 ✺
10.02.26	Taro Daniel - Dane Sweeny	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLWW

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Dane Sweeny: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide