Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Tenerife 2, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Tenerife 2 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Daniel Merida Aguilar		Alejandro Moro Canas

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.47	2.49	Watch
	1.58	2.5
	1.72	2.03	Watch
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.53	2.34	Watch
	1.52	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.6)	2.4 ↑ (2.2)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar
60.8%

Alejandro Moro Canas
39.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.9%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.6%

45.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Alejandro Moro Canas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Daniel Merida Aguilar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alejandro Moro Canas than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alejandro Moro Canas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Alejandro Moro Canas Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Merida Aguilar (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Moro Canas (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Daniel Merida Aguilar will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 152. Moro Canas is ranked ATP: 276.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

Moro Canas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Merida Aguilar might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Merida Aguilar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
13.02.26	Tom Gentzsch - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
11.02.26	Toby Samuel - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
10.02.26	Lorenzo Giustino - Daniel Merida Aguilar	Giustino L. retired ✺
08.02.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
07.02.26	Stefano Travaglia - Daniel Merida Aguilar	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WW?WW
- Alejandro Moro Canas
ATP Challenger
13.02.26	Stefano Travaglia - Alejandro Moro Canas	0:2 ✺
12.02.26	Benjamin Hassan - Alejandro Moro Canas	0:2 ✺
10.02.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - George Loffhagen	Loffhagen G. retired ✺
06.02.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
05.02.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Daniel Rincon	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WW?LW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
06.02.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2
29.01.23	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Alejandro Moro Canas	1:2

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Alejandro Moro Canas