Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Tenerife 2, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Tenerife 2 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Toby Samuel		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	2.02	1.71	Watch
	2.06	1.82
	1.97	1.74	Watch
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	1.98	1.72	Watch
	2.1	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.07)	1.72 ↑ (1.66)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toby Samuel
45.6%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
54.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.5%

55.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

51.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toby Samuel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toby Samuel than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Toby Samuel - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Users Predictions: Daniel Merida Aguilar will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Daniel Merida Aguilar will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Samuel is ranked ATP: 244. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 152.

Samuel has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Merida Aguilar is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Samuel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Merida Aguilar is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Merida Aguilar will win today's game, with odds of 1.58.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Samuel won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Daniel Merida Aguilar - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 55.54%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toby Samuel
ATP Challenger
09.02.26	Daniel Rincon - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
03.02.26	Toby Samuel - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
29.01.26	Toby Samuel - Mitchell Krueger	0:2 ✺
27.01.26	Tristan Boyer - Toby Samuel	1:2 ✺
09.01.26	Toby Samuel - Clement Chidekh	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WLLWL
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
10.02.26	Lorenzo Giustino - Daniel Merida Aguilar	Giustino L. retired ✺
08.02.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
07.02.26	Stefano Travaglia - Daniel Merida Aguilar	1:2 ✺
06.02.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
05.02.26	Alejo Sanchez Quilez - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 ?WWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
03.02.26	Toby Samuel - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2

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