Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Tenerife 2, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 10 February 2026, Tuesday


	Lorenzo Giustino		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
	3.4	1.3	Watch
			Watch
	3.2	1.3	Watch
	3.5	1.33
	3.18	1.31	Watch
	3.5	1.29	Watch
	3.21	1.3	Watch
	3.2	1.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.31 ↑ (2.35)	1.31 ↓ (1.53)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Giustino
28.3%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
71.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

60.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

54.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Giustino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorenzo Giustino's form might have worsened.

Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Daniel Merida Aguilar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Giustino than the current prediction. (+17.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorenzo Giustino, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-17.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Daniel Merida Aguilar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Lorenzo Giustino - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Merida Aguilar (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Daniel Merida Aguilar will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Giustino is ranked ATP: 209. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 183.

Recent performances by Giustino have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Merida Aguilar is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Merida Aguilar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Giustino
ATP Challenger
06.02.26	Lorenzo Giustino - Pol Martin Tiffon	0:2 ✺
05.02.26	Lorenzo Giustino - Miguel Damas	2:0 ✺
03.02.26	Lorenzo Giustino - Izan Almazan Valiente	2:0 ✺
29.01.26	Lorenzo Giustino - Otto Virtanen	0:2 ✺
27.01.26	Filip Misolic - Lorenzo Giustino	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWWLW
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
08.02.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
07.02.26	Stefano Travaglia - Daniel Merida Aguilar	1:2 ✺
06.02.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
05.02.26	Alejo Sanchez Quilez - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
03.02.26	Toby Samuel - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WWWWW

Lorenzo Giustino - Daniel Merida Aguilar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide