Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 22 August 2025, Friday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Daniel Merida Aguilar		Lloyd Harris

	1	2
	2.75	1.37
	2.75	1.43
	2.97	1.41
	2.95	1.39	Watch
	2.73	1.44	Watch
	1.85	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (1.85)	1.49 ↓ (1.87)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar
35.8%

Lloyd Harris
64.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

49.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

47.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Daniel Merida Aguilar's form might have worsened.

Lloyd Harris has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lloyd Harris's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (+17.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Daniel Merida Aguilar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lloyd Harris than the current prediction. (-17.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lloyd Harris, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Lloyd Harris Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Harris (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Lloyd Harris will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 171. Harris is ranked ATP: 353.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Harris may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Harris could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Daniel Merida Aguilar - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 50.27%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP US Open
21.08.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Titouan Droguet	2:1 ✺
19.08.25	Dalibor Svrcina - Daniel Merida Aguilar	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
28.07.25	Antoine Escoffier - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
22.07.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Marc-Andrea Huesler	0:2 ✺
20.07.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Fajing Sun	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWLLW
- Lloyd Harris
ATP US Open
21.08.25	Fajing Sun - Lloyd Harris	0:2 ✺
18.08.25	Lloyd Harris - Daniel Evans	2:1 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
06.08.25	Leandro Riedi - Lloyd Harris	2:0 ✺
05.08.25	Lloyd Harris - Eliot Spizzirri	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
31.07.25	Dhakshineswar Suresh - Lloyd Harris	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWLWL

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