Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Toronto, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 31 July 2025, Thursday


	Daniil Medvedev		Alexei Popyrin

	1	2
	1.25	4	Watch
	1.25	3.9	Watch
	1.24	3.86	Watch
	1.27	4.22
	1.67	2.23	Watch
	1.25	4	Watch
	1.26	3.97	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.35)	3.74 ↑ (3.21)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
74%

Alexei Popyrin
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.4%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.6%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Alexei Popyrin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexei Popyrin than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Daniil Medvedev - Alexei Popyrin Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Medvedev will win (votes: 9 - 60%). Popyrin will win (votes: 6 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Medvedev: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Popyrin (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4.5 Games - Popyrin (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 21.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 1 - 25%). Popyrin (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 14. Popyrin is ranked ATP: 26.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Medvedev may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Medvedev is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:4. (average 2.2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Toronto
29.07.25	Daniil Medvedev - Dalibor Svrcina	2:0 ✺
ATP Washington
25.07.25	Daniil Medvedev - Corentin Moutet	1:2 ✺
24.07.25	Daniil Medvedev - Yibing Wu	2:0 ✺
23.07.25	Daniil Medvedev - Reilly Opelka	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
30.06.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Daniil Medvedev	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLWWL
- Alexei Popyrin
ATP Toronto
29.07.25	Nicolas Arseneault - Alexei Popyrin	0:2 ✺
ATP Washington
23.07.25	Yibing Wu - Alexei Popyrin	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
30.06.25	Alexei Popyrin - Arthur Fery	1:3 ✺
Exhibition Boodles Challenge Men
27.06.25	Alexei Popyrin - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
26.06.25	Alex De Minaur - Alexei Popyrin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roma
11.05.25	Alexei Popyrin - Daniil Medvedev	0:2
ATP Paris
30.10.24	Alexei Popyrin - Daniil Medvedev	2:1
ATP Miami
28.03.21	Daniil Medvedev - Alexei Popyrin	2:1
ATP Australian Open
25.01.20	Daniil Medvedev - Alexei Popyrin	3:0
ATP Wimbledon
03.07.19	Daniil Medvedev - Alexei Popyrin	3:1

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