Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday


	Daniil Medvedev		Cameron Norrie

	1	2
	1.36	3.2	Watch
			Watch
	1.33	3.2	Watch
	1.31	3.7
	1.13	5.83	Watch
	1.33	3.37	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.39)	3.86 ↑ (2.91)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
74.9%

Cameron Norrie
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.7%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.8%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Daniil Medvedev's performance.

Cameron Norrie has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cameron Norrie might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Daniil Medvedev that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cameron Norrie than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cameron Norrie could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Daniil Medvedev - Cameron Norrie Predictions

Users Predictions: Daniil Medvedev will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Daniil Medvedev will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 18. Norrie is ranked ATP: 34.

Medvedev is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Norrie has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Norrie may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Medvedev is a strong favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:3. (average 2:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Daniil Medvedev - the odds 1.39 are the expected chance of winning is 67.7%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Hangzhou
21.09.25	Yibing Wu - Daniil Medvedev	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Nishesh Basavareddy - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
24.08.25	Daniil Medvedev - Benjamin Bonzi	2:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
10.08.25	Adam Walton - Daniil Medvedev	2:1 ✺
ATP Toronto
31.07.25	Daniil Medvedev - Alexei Popyrin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LWLLL
- Cameron Norrie
ATP Chengdu
17.09.25	Cameron Norrie - Yi Zhou	1:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
13.09.25	Olaf Pieczkowski - Cameron Norrie	0:2 ✺
12.09.25	Tomasz Berkieta - Cameron Norrie	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
29.08.25	Novak Djokovic - Cameron Norrie	3:1 ✺
27.08.25	Cameron Norrie - Francisco Comesana	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
27.05.25	Daniil Medvedev - Cameron Norrie	2:3
ATP Roma
09.05.25	Cameron Norrie - Daniil Medvedev	0:2
ATP Miami
24.03.24	Cameron Norrie - Daniil Medvedev	0:2
ATP Los Cabos
06.08.22	Daniil Medvedev - Cameron Norrie	2:0
ATP Shanghai
08.10.19	Daniil Medvedev - Cameron Norrie	2:0

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