Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Louis Armstrong Stadium (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Bulgaria	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Denmark	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Finland	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
France	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Germany	Eurosport 2
Hungary	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Italy	Eurosport 2, Super Tennis
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Poland	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Portugal	Eurosport 2
Romania	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Sweden	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Turkey	Eurosport 2


	Daniil Medvedev		Benjamin Bonzi

	1	2
	1.22	4.33	Watch
	1.22	4.1
	1.2	4.34	Watch
	1.23	4.57
	1.22	4.34	Watch
	1.22	4.2
	1.24	4.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.31)	4.35 ↑ (3.76)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
78.1%

Benjamin Bonzi
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

74.2%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.9%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Benjamin Bonzi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Daniil Medvedev that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benjamin Bonzi than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Benjamin Bonzi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Daniil Medvedev - Benjamin Bonzi Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Medvedev will win (votes: 9 - 60%). Bonzi will win (votes: 6 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Medvedev: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Bonzi (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Medvedev (1.49) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 7 - 70%). Bonzi (votes: 3 - 30%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

#ad

Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 13. Bonzi is ranked ATP: 51.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Bonzi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Medvedev is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Cincinnati
10.08.25	Adam Walton - Daniil Medvedev	2:1 ✺
ATP Toronto
31.07.25	Daniil Medvedev - Alexei Popyrin	1:2 ✺
29.07.25	Daniil Medvedev - Dalibor Svrcina	2:0 ✺
ATP Washington
25.07.25	Daniil Medvedev - Corentin Moutet	1:2 ✺
24.07.25	Daniil Medvedev - Yibing Wu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLWLW
- Benjamin Bonzi
ATP Cincinnati
13.08.25	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Benjamin Bonzi	2:0 ✺
11.08.25	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Benjamin Bonzi	1:2 ✺
09.08.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Lorenzo Musetti	2:1 ✺
07.08.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Toronto
27.07.25	Adam Walton - Benjamin Bonzi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Wimbledon
30.06.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Daniil Medvedev	3:1
ATP Challenger
26.10.17	Daniil Medvedev - Benjamin Bonzi	2:1
ATP Roland Garros
28.05.17	Benjamin Bonzi - Daniil Medvedev	Medvedev D. retired

Daniil Medvedev - Benjamin Bonzi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide