Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Wuning, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 8 April 2026, Wednesday


	Daniil Ostapenkov		Ilia Simakin

	1	2
	3.69	1.29
	3.46	1.26	Watch
	3.75	1.25
	3.41	1.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.58 ↑ (2.82)	1.27 ↓ (1.38)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Ostapenkov
26.2%

Ilia Simakin
73.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

67.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

64.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Ostapenkov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Daniil Ostapenkov's form might have worsened.

Ilia Simakin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilia Simakin's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniil Ostapenkov than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Daniil Ostapenkov, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilia Simakin than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilia Simakin, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Daniil Ostapenkov - Ilia Simakin Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ostapenkov is ranked ATP: 732. Simakin is ranked ATP: 221.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Ostapenkov may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Simakin is the team to beat.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Ostapenkov
ATP Challenger
06.04.26	Daniil Ostapenkov - Qian Sun	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Daniil Ostapenkov - Uisung Park	2:0 ✺
05.04.26	Filip Peliwo - Daniil Ostapenkov	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
31.03.26	Daniil Ostapenkov - Akira Santillan	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
04.03.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Daniil Ostapenkov	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLL?
- Ilia Simakin
ATP Challenger
06.04.26	Tom Paris - Ilia Simakin	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
02.04.26	Ilia Simakin - Kuan-Yi Lee	1:2 ✺
01.04.26	Ilia Simakin - Filip Peliwo	2:0 ✺
31.03.26	Ilia Simakin - Shaoyun Liu	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
25.02.26	Ilia Simakin - Alastair Gray	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLWWL

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