Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Pune, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday


	Ilia Simakin		Alastair Gray

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.75	1.95	Watch
	1.68	2.06	Watch
	1.73	2
	1.66	2.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.57)	2.02 ↓ (2.27)

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilia Simakin
54.2%

Alastair Gray
45.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

45.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilia Simakin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Alastair Gray has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilia Simakin than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alastair Gray than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Ilia Simakin - Alastair Gray Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Simakin will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Gray will win (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Simakin: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Simakin (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Gray (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Simakin (2.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Simakin (votes: 3 - 75%). Gray (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Simakin is ranked ATP: 226. Gray is ranked ATP: 390.

Simakin is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Gray has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Simakin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Ilia Simakin - the odds 1.57 are the expected chance of winning is 59.14%, but this team recently wins 80% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilia Simakin
ATP Challenger
24.02.26	Ilia Simakin - Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Frederico Ferreira Silva - Ilia Simakin	2:0 ✺
13.02.26	Ilia Simakin - Petr Bar-Biryukov	2:1 ✺
12.02.26	Ilia Simakin - Philip Sekulic	2:1 ✺
10.02.26	Ilia Simakin - Manas Manoj Dhamne	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLWWW
- Alastair Gray
ATP Challenger
23.02.26	Alastair Gray - Daniel Michalski	2:1 ✺
19.02.26	Alastair Gray - Rei Sakamoto	1:2 ✺
16.02.26	Alastair Gray - Hyeon Chung	2:0 ✺
09.02.26	Alastair Gray - Philip Sekulic	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	Alastair Gray - Andrea Guerrieri	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLWLL

Ilia Simakin - Alastair Gray: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide