Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Fujairah - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday


	Hayato Matsuoka		Daniil Ostapenkov

	1	2
			Watch
	1.4	2.65	Watch
	1.45	2.5	Watch
	1.52	2.51
	1.47	2.49	Watch
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.5	2.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.65)	2.53 ↑ (2.08)

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hayato Matsuoka
63.4%

Daniil Ostapenkov
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.8%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hayato Matsuoka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hayato Matsuoka's performance.

Daniil Ostapenkov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Daniil Ostapenkov might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hayato Matsuoka than the current prediction. (-12.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hayato Matsuoka that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniil Ostapenkov than the current prediction. (+12.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Daniil Ostapenkov could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Hayato Matsuoka - Daniil Ostapenkov Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Matsuoka will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Ostapenkov will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Matsuoka: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Matsuoka (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Matsuoka is ranked ATP: 368. Ostapenkov is ranked ATP: 754.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Ostapenkov may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Matsuoka will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Hayato Matsuoka - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 55.78%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hayato Matsuoka
ATP Challenger
02.03.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Muzammil Murtaza	2:0 ✺
12.02.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Zhizhen Zhang	0:2 ✺
10.02.26	Marc Polmans - Hayato Matsuoka	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Jake Delaney	2:0 ✺
02.02.26	Cruz Hewitt - Hayato Matsuoka	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLWWL
- Daniil Ostapenkov
ATP Challenger
02.03.26	Daniil Ostapenkov - Ryuki Matsuda	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
25.02.26	Mak Mikovic - Daniil Ostapenkov	Ostapenkov D. retired ✺
19.02.26	Leo Borg - Daniil Ostapenkov	2:0 ✺
18.02.26	Daniil Ostapenkov - Luca Castagnola	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
18.01.26	Radu Albot - Daniil Ostapenkov	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 W?LWL

Hayato Matsuoka - Daniil Ostapenkov: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide