Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 26 January 2026, Monday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Australia	Stan Sport
Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Canada	RDS App
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Mexico	ESPN
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Peru	ESPN
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max
United-kingdom	Discovery+
Usa	ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN


	Elena Rybakina		Elise Mertens

	1	2
	1.14	5.5	Watch
	1.16	5.6	Watch
	1.17	5.75
	1.18	5.07	Watch
	1.17	5	Watch
	1.15	5.55	Watch
	1.15	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.16 ↓ (1.17)	5.42 ↑ (5.12)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elena Rybakina
82.4%

Elise Mertens
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

81.4%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elena Rybakina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Elise Mertens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Elena Rybakina - Elise Mertens Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Rybakina will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Mertens will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rybakina: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mertens (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +5.5 Games - Mertens (1.67) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -5 Games - Rybakina (1.86) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 20.5 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Mertens (2.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Rybakina (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Mertens (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Rybakina is ranked WTA: 5. Mertens is ranked WTA: 21.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rybakina won 5.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

In this match, Rybakina is the obvious favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Rybakina won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:4. (average 1.7:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elena Rybakina
WTA Australian Open
24.01.26	Elena Rybakina - Tereza Valentova	2:0 ✺
22.01.26	Elena Rybakina - Varvara Gracheva	2:0 ✺
19.01.26	Elena Rybakina - Kaja Juvan	2:0 ✺
WTA Brisbane
08.01.26	Elena Rybakina - Karolina Muchova	1:2 ✺
07.01.26	Elena Rybakina - Paula Badosa	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWWLW
- Elise Mertens
WTA Australian Open
23.01.26	Elise Mertens - Nikola Bartunkova	2:0 ✺
21.01.26	Elise Mertens - Moyuka Uchijima	2:0 ✺
19.01.26	Elise Mertens - Lanlana Tararudee	2:0 ✺
WTA United Cup
09.01.26	Belinda Bencic - Elise Mertens	2:1 ✺
08.01.26	Elise Mertens - Barbora Krejcikova	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Cincinnati
11.08.25	Elena Rybakina - Elise Mertens	2:1
WTA Roland Garros
01.06.24	Elise Mertens - Elena Rybakina	0:2
WTA Brisbane
04.01.24	Elise Mertens - Elena Rybakina	0:2
WTA Miami
27.03.23	Elena Rybakina - Elise Mertens	2:0
WTA Cincinnati
18.08.21	Elise Mertens - Elena Rybakina	0:2
WTA Madrid
02.05.21	Elise Mertens - Elena Rybakina	2:0
WTA Shenzhen
09.01.20	Elena Rybakina - Elise Mertens	2:1

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