Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Porto, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 30 July 2025, Wednesday


	Elias Ymer		Mikhail Kukushkin

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.72	2	Watch
	1.72	2.01	Watch
	1.78	2.08
	1.67	2.15	Watch
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.72	2.03	Watch
	1.83	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.85)	1.99 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elias Ymer
53.2%

Mikhail Kukushkin
46.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

50.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.3%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elias Ymer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Mikhail Kukushkin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elias Ymer than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mikhail Kukushkin than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Elias Ymer - Mikhail Kukushkin Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ymer will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Kukushkin will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kukushkin: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mikhail Kukushkin will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ymer is ranked ATP: 232. Kukushkin is ranked ATP: 195.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Kukushkin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ymer won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Elias Ymer - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 49.73%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elias Ymer
ATP Challenger
28.07.25	Jaime Faria - Elias Ymer	1:2 ✺
23.07.25	Harold Mayot - Elias Ymer	2:0 ✺
22.07.25	Remy Bertola - Elias Ymer	1:2 ✺
ATP Bastad
16.07.25	Elias Ymer - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
15.07.25	Elias Ymer - Tristan Boyer	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WLWLW
- Mikhail Kukushkin
ATP Challenger
29.07.25	Aslan Karatsev - Mikhail Kukushkin	0:2 ✺
15.07.25	Ryan Peniston - Mikhail Kukushkin	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
25.06.25	Mikhail Kukushkin - August Holmgren	1:2 ✺
23.06.25	Thiago Seyboth Wild - Mikhail Kukushkin	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.06.25	Mikhail Kukushkin - Chris Rodesch	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Davis Cup World Group
27.11.21	Mikhail Kukushkin - Elias Ymer	0:2
ATP Roma
12.09.20	Mikhail Kukushkin - Elias Ymer	2:1
ATP Bastad
08.07.14	Mikhail Kukushkin - Elias Ymer	0:2

Elias Ymer - Mikhail Kukushkin: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide