Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Bastad, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 16 July 2025, Wednesday


	Elias Ymer		Luciano Darderi

	1	2
	3.75	1.29	Watch
	3.75	1.26	Watch
	3.7	1.27	Watch
	4.09	1.27
			Watch
	3.6	1.29	Watch
	3.81	1.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.78 ↑ (2.73)	1.28 ↓ (1.38)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elias Ymer
25.2%

Luciano Darderi
74.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

66.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

70.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elias Ymer has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Elias Ymer's form might have worsened.

Luciano Darderi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Luciano Darderi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elias Ymer than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Elias Ymer - Luciano Darderi Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Darderi (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Luciano Darderi will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ymer is ranked ATP: 264. Darderi is ranked ATP: 55.

In recent matches, Ymer has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Darderi is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Darderi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Darderi is a strong favorite.

We predict that Darderi will win today's game, with odds of 1.31.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elias Ymer
ATP Bastad
15.07.25	Elias Ymer - Tristan Boyer	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.07.25	Diego Dedura-Palomero - Elias Ymer	2:0 ✺
ATP Mallorca
22.06.25	Brandon Holt - Elias Ymer	2:0 ✺
21.06.25	Elias Ymer - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
19.06.25	Francesco Passaro - Elias Ymer	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLLWL
- Luciano Darderi
ATP Bastad
14.07.25	Raphael Collignon - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
04.07.25	Luciano Darderi - Jordan Thompson	1:3 ✺
03.07.25	Arthur Fery - Luciano Darderi	0:3 ✺
30.06.25	Luciano Darderi - Roman Safiullin	3:2 ✺
Exhibition Hurlingham Men
28.06.25	Marin Cilic - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WLWWW

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