Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Guangzhou 2, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 14 September 2026, Monday


	Elias Ymer		Semen Pankin

	1	2
	1.36	3.00	Watch
	1.34	3.00
	1.40	2.85
	1.41	3.06
	1.38	2.82	Watch
	1.40	3.00
	1.38	2.81	Watch
	1.36	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.5)	2.93 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elias Ymer
68%

Semen Pankin
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.4%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elias Ymer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Elias Ymer's performance.

Semen Pankin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Semen Pankin might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elias Ymer than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Elias Ymer that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Semen Pankin than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Semen Pankin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Elias Ymer - Semen Pankin Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Ymer will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Pankin will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ymer is ranked ATP: 204. Pankin is ranked ATP: 421.

Ymer is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Pankin has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Ymer is seen as the favorite.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elias Ymer
ATP Challenger
08.09.26	Elias Ymer - Pavel Kotov	1:2 ✺
31.08.26	Yu Hsiou Hsu - Elias Ymer	Ymer E. Retired ✺
ATP US Open
26.08.26	Elias Ymer - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
24.08.26	Franco Roncadelli - Elias Ymer	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
19.08.26	Daniil Glinka - Elias Ymer	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 L?LWL
- Semen Pankin
ATP Challenger
07.09.26	Semen Pankin - Alexis Galarneau	0:2 ✺
31.08.26	Yosuke Watanuki - Semen Pankin	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
22.08.26	Semen Pankin - Dimitar Kisimov	0:2 ✺
21.08.26	Semen Pankin - Stefan Horia Haita	Haita S. H. Retired ✺
20.08.26	Semen Pankin - Drazen Petrovic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLL?W

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