Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: AUSTRALIAN OPEN (AUSTRALIA) - QUALIFICATION, HARD - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 8 January 2024, Monday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)


	Emilio Nava		Luciano Darderi

	1	2
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.45	2.65
	1.42	2.7	Watch
	1.45	2.8
	1.46	2.8
	1.5	2.5
	1.45	2.7	Watch
	1.48	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.5)	2.65 ↑ (2.4)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emilio Nava
64.3%

Luciano Darderi
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.5%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.5%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emilio Nava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Luciano Darderi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emilio Nava than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Emilio Nava - Luciano Darderi Predictions

Users Predictions: Emilio Nava will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Recent matches Nava is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Darderi is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Nava could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Nava will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emilio Nava
ATP Challenger
01.01.24	Matteo Gigante - Emilio Nava	2:1 ✺
14.11.23	Emilio Nava - Ethan Quinn	0:2 ✺
11.11.23	Denis Kudla - Emilio Nava	2:1 ✺
10.11.23	Zachary Svajda - Emilio Nava	0:2 ✺
09.11.23	Murphy Cassone - Emilio Nava	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLLWW
- Luciano Darderi
ATP Challenger
14.11.23	Alvaro Guillen Meza - Luciano Darderi	2:1 ✺
12.11.23	Luciano Darderi - Mariano Navone	2:1 ✺
11.11.23	Luciano Darderi - Alejandro Tabilo	2:1 ✺
10.11.23	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
09.11.23	Luciano Darderi - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 LWWWW

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