Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Soma Bay 2, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 20 January 2026, Tuesday


	Ergi Kirkin		Thijs Boogaard

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.23	1.59	Watch
	2.2	1.6	Watch
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.2	1.6	Watch
	2.25	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.25)	1.6 ↑ (1.57)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ergi Kirkin
41.8%

Thijs Boogaard
58.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

58.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

62%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ergi Kirkin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Thijs Boogaard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ergi Kirkin than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thijs Boogaard than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Ergi Kirkin - Thijs Boogaard Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Kirkin (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Boogaard (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Games - Boogaard (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Kirkin (votes: 1 - 25%). Boogaard (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Kirkin is ranked ATP: 556. Boogaard is ranked ATP: 1184.

Kirkin is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Boogaard has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Boogaard may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Ergi Kirkin - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.1%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ergi Kirkin
ATP Challenger
19.01.26	Zura Tkemaladze - Ergi Kirkin	0:2 ✺
18.01.26	Ergi Kirkin - Gianmarco Ferrari	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
09.01.26	Ergi Kirkin - Mert Alkaya	0:2 ✺
08.01.26	Ergi Kirkin - Oscar Brown	2:0 ✺
07.01.26	Ergi Kirkin - Mustapha El Natour	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLWW
- Thijs Boogaard
ATP Challenger
19.01.26	Thijs Boogaard - Dali Blanch	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Max Wiskandt - Thijs Boogaard	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
15.01.26	Thijs Boogaard - Alexandr Binda	1:2 ✺
14.01.26	Francisco Rocha - Thijs Boogaard	0:2 ✺
08.01.26	Thijs Boogaard - Maxwell McKennon	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWLWL

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