Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Brisbane, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 5 February 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Brisbane 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Fajing Sun		Blake Ellis

	1	2
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	2.05	1.65
	2.17	1.74
	2.03	1.7
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.98	1.72	Watch
	1.97	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.83)	1.73 ↓ (1.86)

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fajing Sun
46.1%

Blake Ellis
53.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50.4%

49.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

45.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fajing Sun has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Blake Ellis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fajing Sun than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fajing Sun, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Blake Ellis than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Blake Ellis, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	0%	77.8%

Fajing Sun - Blake Ellis Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Sun will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Ellis will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ellis: 50.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Blake Ellis will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Sun is ranked ATP: 273. Ellis is ranked ATP: 518.

Sun is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ellis has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ellis may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Fajing Sun - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50.41%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fajing Sun
ATP Challenger
02.02.26	Fajing Sun - David Jorda Sanchis	2:0 ✺
27.01.26	Florent Bax - Fajing Sun	2:1 ✺
19.01.26	Petr Bar-Biryukov - Fajing Sun	2:0 ✺
12.01.26	Fajing Sun - Beibit Zhukayev	0:2 ✺
06.01.26	Tibo Colson - Fajing Sun	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLLLL
- Blake Ellis
ATP Challenger
03.02.26	Blake Ellis - Hikaru Shiraishi	2:0 ✺
ATP Australian Open
12.01.26	Blake Ellis - Stefano Travaglia	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.01.26	Jurij Rodionov - Blake Ellis	2:1 ✺
08.01.26	Blake Ellis - Bernard Tomic	2:1 ✺
06.01.26	Blake Ellis - Andre Ilagan	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLLWW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fajing Sun
ATP Challenger
29.10.26	Petr Bar-Biryukov - Fajing Sun	✺
- Blake Ellis
ITF Tournaments
29.10.26	Anton Shepp - Blake Ellis	✺

Fajing Sun - Blake Ellis