Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Tolentino, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 September 2026, Monday


	Federica Urgesi		Oksana Selekhmeteva

	1	2
	2.50	1.50	Watch
	2.50	1.50
	2.50	1.50	Watch
	2.5	1.47	Watch
	2.55	1.50
	2.47	1.48	Watch
	2.48	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (2.66)	1.49 ↑ (1.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Federica Urgesi
37.3%

Oksana Selekhmeteva
62.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.8%

65.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

70.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Federica Urgesi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Oksana Selekhmeteva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Federica Urgesi than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Federica Urgesi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oksana Selekhmeteva than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Oksana Selekhmeteva could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Federica Urgesi - Oksana Selekhmeteva Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Urgesi is ranked WTA: 260., and Selekhmeteva is ranked WTA: 101..

Each of the two players is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Selekhmeteva may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Selekhmeteva holding a narrow advantage.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Last Results with these Odds

Federica Urgesi - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 34.8%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Federica Urgesi
ATP Challenger
08.09.26	Federica Urgesi - Miriam Bianca Bulgaru	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
05.09.26	Clara Burel - Federica Urgesi	2:0 ✺
04.09.26	Federica Urgesi - Maria Lourdes Carle	2:1 ✺
03.09.26	Federica Urgesi - Oceane Babel	2:0 ✺
02.09.26	Federica Urgesi - Lia Karatancheva	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLWWW
- Oksana Selekhmeteva
ATP Challenger
15.09.26	Oksana Selekhmeteva - Nastasja Mariana Schunk	0:2 ✺
WTA US Open
02.09.26	Oksana Selekhmeteva - Kamilla Rakhimova	0:2 ✺
31.08.26	Aoi Ito - Oksana Selekhmeteva	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
28.08.26	Oksana Selekhmeteva - Katie Volynets	0:2 ✺
27.08.26	Oksana Selekhmeteva - Xiyu Wang	Selekhmeteva O. Walkover
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLWL?

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