Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cervia - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Cervia 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Federico Arnaboldi		Gianmarco Ferrari

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Federico Arnaboldi
62%

Gianmarco Ferrari
38%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

60.5%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.7%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Federico Arnaboldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Gianmarco Ferrari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Federico Arnaboldi than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gianmarco Ferrari than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Arnaboldi is ranked ATP: 412. Ferrari is ranked ATP: 482.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Arnaboldi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Arnaboldi could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Arnaboldi won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:2. (average 1.5:0.5).

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Federico Arnaboldi
ATP Challenger
10.05.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Inaki Montes De La Torre	0:2 ✺
04.05.26	Jay Clarke - Federico Arnaboldi	2:0 ✺
29.04.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
28.04.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Lorenzo Carboni	2:0 ✺
27.04.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Luca Castagnola	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLLWW
- Gianmarco Ferrari
ITF Tournaments
06.05.26	Gianmarco Ferrari - Giacomo Crisostomo	0:2 ✺
04.05.26	Gianmarco Ferrari - Josip Simundza	2:0 ✺
01.05.26	Eric Vanshelboim - Gianmarco Ferrari	2:0 ✺
30.04.26	Tim Handel - Gianmarco Ferrari	0:2 ✺
29.04.26	Oliwier Sterniczuk - Gianmarco Ferrari	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLWW

ITF Tournaments
15.09.22	Federico Arnaboldi - Gianmarco Ferrari	2:0
28.08.22	Gianmarco Ferrari - Federico Arnaboldi	2:0
11.08.22	Gianmarco Ferrari - Federico Arnaboldi	0:2
16.07.21	Federico Arnaboldi - Gianmarco Ferrari	2:0

Federico Arnaboldi - Gianmarco Ferrari