Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Francavilla, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday


	Jay Clarke		Federico Arnaboldi

	1	2
			Watch
	1.92	1.79	Watch
	1.98	1.88
	1.89	1.80	Watch
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	1.89	1.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 (1.92)	1.81 ↑ (1.79)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jay Clarke
48.6%

Federico Arnaboldi
51.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

51.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

48.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jay Clarke has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Federico Arnaboldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jay Clarke than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Federico Arnaboldi than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Jay Clarke - Federico Arnaboldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Clarke will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Arnaboldi will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Clarke is ranked ATP: 197. Arnaboldi is ranked ATP: 441.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Arnaboldi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jay Clarke
ATP Challenger
29.04.26	Jay Clarke - Raul Brancaccio	0:2 ✺
27.04.26	Max Schoenhaus - Jay Clarke	1:2 ✺
06.04.26	Jay Clarke - Matias Soto	1:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
31.03.26	Alex Molcan - Jay Clarke	2:1 ✺
30.03.26	Gabriel Ghetu - Jay Clarke	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLLW
- Federico Arnaboldi
ATP Challenger
29.04.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
28.04.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Lorenzo Carboni	2:0 ✺
27.04.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Luca Castagnola	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
25.04.26	Francesco Forti - Federico Arnaboldi	2:1 ✺
24.04.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Giovanni Oradini	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWWLW

Jay Clarke - Federico Arnaboldi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide