Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Tiburon, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday


	Federico Bondioli		Dmitry Popko

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	5.28	1.14	Watch
	2.23	1.61	Watch
	2.25	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↑ (2.25)	1.49 ↓ (1.57)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Federico Bondioli
34.3%

Dmitry Popko
65.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

58.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Federico Bondioli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Federico Bondioli's form might have worsened.

Dmitry Popko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dmitry Popko's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Federico Bondioli than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Federico Bondioli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dmitry Popko than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dmitry Popko, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Federico Bondioli - Dmitry Popko Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bondioli is ranked ATP: 389. Popko is ranked ATP: 214.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Popko may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Federico Bondioli - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.1%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Federico Bondioli
ATP Challenger
23.09.25	Pietro Orlando Fellin - Federico Bondioli	2:1 ✺
16.09.25	Federico Bondioli - Andres Martin	0:2 ✺
05.09.25	Federico Bondioli - Stefano Travaglia	0:2 ✺
04.09.25	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Federico Bondioli	1:2 ✺
02.09.25	Federico Bondioli - Daniel Michalski	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLLWW
- Dmitry Popko
ATP Challenger
25.09.25	Dmitry Popko - Andre Ilagan	0:2 ✺
23.09.25	Dmitry Popko - Quinn Vandecasteele	2:0 ✺
04.09.25	Luciano Darderi - Dmitry Popko	2:0 ✺
02.09.25	Marco Cecchinato - Dmitry Popko	0:2 ✺
26.08.25	Dmitry Popko - Dimitar Kuzmanov	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWLWL

Federico Bondioli - Dmitry Popko: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide