Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Murcia - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 16 March 2026, Monday


	Felix Gill		Federico Arnaboldi

	1	2
			Watch
	1.24	3.5	Watch
	1.25	3.6	Watch
	1.28	3.74
	1.25	3.5	Watch
	1.26	3.49	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.26 ↓ (1.3)	3.57 ↑ (3.18)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Felix Gill
74%

Federico Arnaboldi
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Felix Gill has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Federico Arnaboldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Felix Gill than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Felix Gill that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Federico Arnaboldi than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Federico Arnaboldi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Felix Gill - Federico Arnaboldi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Gill is ranked ATP: 253. Arnaboldi is ranked ATP: 385.

Gill is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Arnaboldi's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Gill may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Gill is considered a favorite.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Felix Gill
ATP Challenger
15.03.26	Felix Gill - Nicolas Parizzia	2:0 ✺
03.03.26	Felix Gill - Max Basing	Canceled ✺
01.03.26	Federico Cina - Felix Gill	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Felix Gill - Edas Butvilas	2:0 ✺
27.02.26	Felix Gill - Maks Kasnikowski	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 W?LWW
- Federico Arnaboldi
ATP Challenger
15.03.26	Alejandro Juan Mano - Federico Arnaboldi	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
06.03.26	Joao Domingues - Federico Arnaboldi	2:0 ✺
05.03.26	Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez - Federico Arnaboldi	0:2 ✺
03.03.26	Oscar Weightman - Federico Arnaboldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
22.02.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Alex Knaff	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLWWL

Felix Gill - Federico Arnaboldi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide