Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cervia - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 18 May 2026, Monday


	Francesco Forti		Lorenzo Carboni

	1	2
	1.61	2.18
	1.6	2.2	Watch
	1.62	2.2
	1.61	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.81)	2.19 ↑ (1.88)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francesco Forti
57.6%

Lorenzo Carboni
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

49.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

52.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francesco Forti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Francesco Forti's performance.

Lorenzo Carboni has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lorenzo Carboni might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francesco Forti than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Francesco Forti that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Carboni than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lorenzo Carboni could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Francesco Forti - Lorenzo Carboni Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Forti is ranked ATP: 414. Carboni is ranked ATP: 452.

Forti is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Carboni has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Carboni may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Forti will win today's game, with odds of 1.81.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Forti won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Francesco Forti - the odds 1.81 are the expected chance of winning is 50.95%, but this team recently wins 89% of matches with these odds.

Lorenzo Carboni - the odds 1.88 are the expected chance of winning is 49.05%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francesco Forti
ATP Challenger
17.05.26	Francesco Forti - Massimo Giunta	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
25.04.26	Francesco Forti - Federico Arnaboldi	2:1 ✺
24.04.26	Francesco Forti - Manuel Mazza	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Lorenzo Angelini - Francesco Forti	0:2 ✺
22.04.26	Sergio Planella Hernandez - Francesco Forti	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWWW
- Lorenzo Carboni
ATP Challenger
17.05.26	Samuel Vincent Ruggeri - Lorenzo Carboni	1:2 ✺
11.05.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Laslo Djere	0:2 ✺
10.05.26	Miguel Damas - Lorenzo Carboni	0:2 ✺
ATP Roma
04.05.26	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Lorenzo Carboni	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
29.04.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Gianluca Cadenasso	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
17.04.26	Francesco Forti - Lorenzo Carboni	1:2
ATP Challenger
30.03.26	Francesco Forti - Lorenzo Carboni	2:0
23.03.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Francesco Forti	1:2

Francesco Forti - Lorenzo Carboni: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide