Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Oeiras 6 - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday


	Miguel Damas		Lorenzo Carboni

	1	2
			Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.61	2.37
	1.53	2.33	Watch
	1.57	2.2	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.61)	2.28 ↑ (2.21)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Miguel Damas
59.2%

Lorenzo Carboni
40.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

47%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Miguel Damas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Lorenzo Carboni has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miguel Damas than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Miguel Damas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Carboni than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lorenzo Carboni could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Miguel Damas - Lorenzo Carboni Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Damas is ranked ATP: 260. Carboni is ranked ATP: 452.

Damas has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Carboni has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Carboni may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Damas might have a minor edge in this game.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Miguel Damas - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 57.93%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Miguel Damas
ATP Challenger
01.05.26	Miguel Damas - Jaime Faria	0:2 ✺
30.04.26	Miguel Damas - Mika Brunold	2:0 ✺
28.04.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Miguel Damas	0:2 ✺
27.04.26	Miguel Damas - Matthew Donald	0:2 ✺
26.04.26	Miguel Damas - Piet Luis Pinter	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWLW
- Lorenzo Carboni
ATP Roma
04.05.26	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Lorenzo Carboni	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
29.04.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Gianluca Cadenasso	0:2 ✺
28.04.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Lorenzo Carboni	2:0 ✺
27.04.26	Manuel Mazza - Lorenzo Carboni	0:2 ✺
20.04.26	Jonas Forejtek - Lorenzo Carboni	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLLWL

Miguel Damas - Lorenzo Carboni: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide