Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Sofia 2 - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 18 August 2025, Monday


	Franco Roncadelli		Jozef Kovalik

	1	2
			Watch
	2.4	1.48	Watch
	2.5	1.47	Watch
	2.41	1.55
	2.34	1.57	Watch
	2.5	1.5	Watch
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.2)	1.51 ↓ (1.6)

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Franco Roncadelli
38.4%

Jozef Kovalik
61.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

57.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Franco Roncadelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Jozef Kovalik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Franco Roncadelli than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Franco Roncadelli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jozef Kovalik than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jozef Kovalik, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Franco Roncadelli - Jozef Kovalik Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Roncadelli is ranked ATP: 380. Kovalik is ranked ATP: 576.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Kovalik may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Kovalik could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Jozef Kovalik - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 57.89%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Franco Roncadelli
ATP Challenger
17.08.25	Franco Roncadelli - Adil Kalyanpur	2:1 ✺
12.08.25	Franco Roncadelli - Sebastian Gima	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
03.08.25	Franco Roncadelli - Gabi Adrian Boitan	0:2 ✺
02.08.25	Oleksandr Ovcharenko - Franco Roncadelli	0:2 ✺
01.08.25	Franco Roncadelli - Mihai Razvan Marinescu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLLWW
- Jozef Kovalik
ATP Challenger
17.08.25	Jozef Kovalik - Max Alcala Gurri	2:0 ✺
13.07.25	Kalin Ivanovski - Jozef Kovalik	2:0 ✺
07.07.25	Alex Barrena - Jozef Kovalik	2:1 ✺
06.07.25	Tom Zeuch - Jozef Kovalik	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
25.06.25	Jozef Kovalik - Nicolas Jarry	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLWL

Franco Roncadelli - Jozef Kovalik: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide