Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 8, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 23 September 2026, Wednesday


	Gabriele Pennaforti		Lorenzo Carboni

	1	2
			Watch
	2.80	1.36
	2.70	1.41	Watch
	2.9	1.35	Watch
	3.05	1.36
	2.89	1.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.68)	1.36 ↓ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gabriele Pennaforti
32.2%

Lorenzo Carboni
67.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

65.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

64%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gabriele Pennaforti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Lorenzo Carboni has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gabriele Pennaforti than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Carboni than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Gabriele Pennaforti - Lorenzo Carboni Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carboni (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Pennaforti is ranked ATP: 1261., and Carboni is ranked ATP: 569..

Recent results have been tough for Pennaforti (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Carboni have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Pennaforti may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Carboni for this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Pennaforti has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gabriele Pennaforti
ITF Tournaments
22.09.26	Gabriele Pennaforti - Nicholas David Ionel	2:0 ✺
14.09.26	Nicolas Parizzia - Gabriele Pennaforti	2:1 ✺
19.08.26	Thilo Behrmann - Gabriele Pennaforti	2:0 ✺
12.08.26	George Lazarov - Gabriele Pennaforti	2:0 ✺
03.08.26	Gabriele Pennaforti - Peter Buldorini	Pennaforti G. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WLLL?
- Lorenzo Carboni
ITF Tournaments
21.09.26	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini - Lorenzo Carboni	0:2 ✺
15.09.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Matteo Sciahbasi	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
06.09.26	Gerard Campana Lee - Lorenzo Carboni	2:0 ✺
01.09.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Pedro Martinez Portero	Carboni L. Retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
29.08.26	Andrey Chepelev - Lorenzo Carboni	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLL?L

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