Match Info

Date: 25 September 2021, Saturday


	Gael Monfils		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
	1.83	1.95
	1.93	1.87	Watch
	1.83	1.91
	1.88	2.02
	1.85	1.95	Watch
	1.89	1.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (1.99)	1.93 ↑ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gael Monfils
50.5%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
49.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

51.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

54.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gael Monfils has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gael Monfils than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gael Monfils that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pablo Carreno-Busta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.1%	0%	12.9%

Gael Monfils - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Users Predictions: Gael Monfils will win (88 of 101 users predict this - 87.13%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.6% – 93.66%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Monfils is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Carreno Busta is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Monfils won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gael Monfils
ATP Metz
24.09.21	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Gael Monfils	0:2 ✺
23.09.21	Philipp Kohlschreiber - Gael Monfils	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
04.09.21	Gael Monfils - Jannik Sinner	2:3 ✺
02.09.21	Gael Monfils - Steve Johnson	3:1 ✺
31.08.21	Gael Monfils - Federico Coria	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLWW
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Metz
24.09.21	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
22.09.21	Mikael Ymer - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.21	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Maxime Cressy	2:3 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
26.08.21	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Ilya Ivashka	0:2 ✺
25.08.21	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Dominik Koepfer	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Vienna
26.10.20	Gael Monfils - Pablo Carreno-Busta	Monfils G. retired
ATP Cincinnati
16.08.16	Gael Monfils - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0
ATP Indian Wells
12.03.16	Gael Monfils - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0
ATP Wimbledon
30.06.15	Gael Monfils - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:0
ATP Monte Carlo
16.04.14	Gael Monfils - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2

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