Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Porto, hard - Final

Date: 27 July 2025, Sunday


	Gastao Elias		Lucas Poullain

	1	2
			Watch
	1.65	2.05
	1.55	2.23
	1.55	2.4
	1.58	2.31	Watch
	1.59	2.24	Watch
	1.85	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.85)	2.18 ↑ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gastao Elias
57.2%

Lucas Poullain
42.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.2%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gastao Elias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gastao Elias's performance.

Lucas Poullain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lucas Poullain might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gastao Elias than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gastao Elias that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lucas Poullain than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lucas Poullain could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Gastao Elias - Lucas Poullain Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Elias is ranked ATP: 318. Poullain is ranked ATP: 387.

Elias has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Poullain is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Elias won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Lucas Poullain - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gastao Elias
ITF Tournaments
26.07.25	Laurent Lokoli - Gastao Elias	Elias G. walkover ✺
25.07.25	Gastao Elias - Fabrizio Andaloro	2:0 ✺
24.07.25	Gastao Elias - Ignasi Forcano	2:0 ✺
23.07.25	Gastao Elias - Tiago Silva	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
17.07.25	Gastao Elias - Oliver Crawford	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 ?WWWL
- Lucas Poullain
ITF Tournaments
26.07.25	Luca Potenza - Lucas Poullain	0:2 ✺
25.07.25	Lucas Poullain - Mae Malige	2:1 ✺
24.07.25	Lucas Poullain - Diogo Marques	2:0 ✺
23.07.25	Lucas Poullain - Francisco Rocha	2:0 ✺
19.07.25	Lucas Poullain - Maxwell McKennon	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
10.03.21	Lucas Poullain - Gastao Elias	2:0
27.02.21	Gastao Elias - Lucas Poullain	2:1

Gastao Elias - Lucas Poullain: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide