Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Madrid 2, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 September 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Madrid 2 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Gian Luca Tanner		Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

	1	2
	2.85	1.36
	2.94	1.37
	1.98	1.70	Watch
	2.99	1.35	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↓ (2.96)	1.45 ↑ (1.37)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gian Luca Tanner
34.9%

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
65.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.6%

68.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

70.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gian Luca Tanner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gian Luca Tanner than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gian Luca Tanner that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mario Gonzalez Fernandez than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mario Gonzalez Fernandez could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Gian Luca Tanner - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tanner is ranked ATP: 1420. Gonzalez Fernandez is ranked ATP: 706.

Tanner is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gonzalez Fernandez's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Gonzalez Fernandez may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Gonzalez Fernandez is seen as the favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gian Luca Tanner
ITF Tournaments
09.09.25	Gian Luca Tanner - Noah Lopez Cherubino	2:1 ✺
04.09.25	Lucas Gerch - Gian Luca Tanner	2:0 ✺
26.08.25	Gian Luca Tanner - Miguel Damas	0:2 ✺
12.08.25	Gian Luca Tanner - Javier Barranco Cosano	0:2 ✺
18.07.25	Gian Luca Tanner - Vladyslav Orlov	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WLLLL
- Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
ITF Tournaments
09.09.25	Pedro Rodenas - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
31.08.25	Max Alcala Gurri - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	Gonzalez Fernandez M. retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
27.08.25	Mathys Erhard - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Jakub Filip - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	2:1 ✺
21.08.25	Rafael Tosetto - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 W?LLW

Gian Luca Tanner - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Match Info

Current Win Probability

Gian Luca Tanner - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Predictions

Preview

Form

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