Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cagliari, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Gianluca Cadenasso

	1	2
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.56	2.28	Watch
	1.59	2.52
	1.56	2.31	Watch
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.55	2.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.43)	2.36 ↓ (2.64)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
60.3%

Gianluca Cadenasso
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.9%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.4%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Gianluca Cadenasso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gianluca Cadenasso than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Matteo Arnaldi - Gianluca Cadenasso Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Cadenasso will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 103. Cadenasso is ranked ATP: 232.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Cadenasso may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Arnaldi might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Matteo Arnaldi - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 64.86%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Challenger
01.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Nuno Borges	2:1 ✺
30.04.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
29.04.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
20.04.26	Dusan Lajovic - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
11.04.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Quentin Halys	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWWLL
- Gianluca Cadenasso
ATP Challenger
01.05.26	Gianluca Cadenasso - Jesper De Jong	2:1 ✺
30.04.26	Mattia Bellucci - Gianluca Cadenasso	0:2 ✺
29.04.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Gianluca Cadenasso	0:2 ✺
29.04.26	Rei Sakamoto - Gianluca Cadenasso	Canceled ✺
22.04.26	Gianluca Cadenasso - Jacopo Vasami	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWW?L

Upcoming Matches