Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Basel, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday


	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard		Joao Fonseca

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
			Watch
	1.75	2.05
	1.76	2.16
	1.78	1.99	Watch
	1.83	2.02	Watch
	1.67	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.91)	2.09 ↑ (1.91)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
54.3%

Joao Fonseca
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

52.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Joao Fonseca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Joao Fonseca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Joao Fonseca Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Mpetshi Perricard will win (votes: 12 - 60%). Fonseca will win (votes: 8 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mpetshi Perricard: 38.5% – 81.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Mpetshi Perricard (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Fonseca (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Mpetshi Perricard is ranked ATP: 37. Fonseca is ranked ATP: 45.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Fonseca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
ATP Brussels
18.10.25	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Jiri Lehecka	0:2 ✺
17.10.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	0:2 ✺
16.10.25	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	Basilashvili N. retired ✺
14.10.25	Emil Ruusuvuori - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	1:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
07.10.25	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LW?WL
- Joao Fonseca
ATP Brussels
14.10.25	Joao Fonseca - Botic Van De Zandschulp	0:2 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
19.09.25	Flavio Cobolli - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
14.09.25	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Joao Fonseca	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Stefanos Sakellaridis - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
27.08.25	Joao Fonseca - Tomas Machac	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWWWL

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Joao Fonseca: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide