Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montreal, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 5 August 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1, Max Sport 2
Colombia	ESPN
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1, Premier Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Peru	ESPN 2
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport 2, Polsat Sport Extra 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1, Polsat Sport Premium 2
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 3
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1, TV4 Tennis
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis, Sky Sports+


	Stefanos Tsitsipas		Joao Fonseca

	1	2
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.15	1.67
	2.24	1.66	Watch
	2.31	1.7
	2.27	1.63	Watch
	2.2	1.68
	2.24	1.68	Watch
	2.26	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.19)	1.67 (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stefanos Tsitsipas
42.8%

Joao Fonseca
57.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

56.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stefanos Tsitsipas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Joao Fonseca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefanos Tsitsipas than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Stefanos Tsitsipas - Joao Fonseca Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Tsitsipas will win (votes: 6 - 40%). Fonseca will win (votes: 9 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fonseca: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (2.25) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Tsitsipas (1.45) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tsitsipas (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tsitsipas is ranked ATP: 53. Fonseca is ranked ATP: 27.

Tsitsipas is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Fonseca has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Tsitsipas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tsitsipas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Joao Fonseca - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 56.74%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stefanos Tsitsipas
ATP Montreal
04.08.26	Martin Damm - Stefanos Tsitsipas	0:2 ✺
01.08.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Keegan Rice	2:0 ✺
ATP Washington
29.07.26	Alex De Minaur - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:1 ✺
ATP Gstaad
19.07.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Raphael Collignon	2:1 ✺
18.07.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Stefanos Tsitsipas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWLWW
- Joao Fonseca
Exhibition UTS Championship Men
18.07.26	Joao Fonseca - Corentin Moutet	3:1 ✺
17.07.26	Joao Fonseca - Nick Kyrgios	0:3 ✺
17.07.26	Joao Fonseca - Tallon Griekspoor	3:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
03.07.26	Roman Safiullin - Joao Fonseca	3:0 ✺
01.07.26	Jesper De Jong - Joao Fonseca	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Davis Cup World Group I
14.09.25	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Joao Fonseca	1:2

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