Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Poznan, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 18 June 2026, Thursday


	Gustavo Heide		Jan Choinski

	1	2
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.55	2.30
	1.5	2.35	Watch
	1.56	2.59
	1.52	2.36	Watch
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.54	2.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (2)	2.4 ↑ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gustavo Heide
61.1%

Jan Choinski
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

53.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.2%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gustavo Heide has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gustavo Heide's performance.

Jan Choinski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jan Choinski might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gustavo Heide than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gustavo Heide that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jan Choinski than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jan Choinski could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Gustavo Heide - Jan Choinski Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Heide will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Choinski will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Heide is ranked ATP: 187. Choinski is ranked ATP: 106.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Heide may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Heide could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Jan Choinski - the odds 1.71 are the expected chance of winning is 53.91%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gustavo Heide
ATP Challenger
17.06.26	Gustavo Heide - Maxim Mrva	2:0 ✺
16.06.26	Gustavo Heide - Daniel Michalski	2:0 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
20.05.26	Gustavo Heide - Jurij Rodionov	0:2 ✺
19.05.26	Gustavo Heide - Dan Added	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.05.26	Laslo Djere - Gustavo Heide	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWLWL
- Jan Choinski
ATP Challenger
17.06.26	Maks Kasnikowski - Jan Choinski	1:2 ✺
16.06.26	Pedro Boscardin Dias - Jan Choinski	0:2 ✺
10.06.26	Federico Cina - Jan Choinski	2:0 ✺
08.06.26	Norbert Gombos - Jan Choinski	0:2 ✺
04.06.26	Jan Choinski - Luka Mikrut	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWLWL

Gustavo Heide - Jan Choinski: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide