Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Heilbronn, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 June 2026, Thursday


	Jan Choinski		Luka Mikrut

	1	2
	1.57	2.25	Watch
			Watch
	1.54	2.32	Watch
	1.56	2.51
	1.5	2.39	Watch
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.53	2.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.62)	2.37 ↑ (2.14)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jan Choinski
60.6%

Luka Mikrut
39.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.9%

43.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

46.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jan Choinski has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Luka Mikrut has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jan Choinski than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jan Choinski that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luka Mikrut than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luka Mikrut could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Jan Choinski - Luka Mikrut Predictions

Users Predictions: Jan Choinski will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Choinski is ranked ATP: 101. Mikrut is ranked ATP: 195.

Choinski is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Mikrut's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Choinski may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Choinski will win today's game, with odds of 1.63.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Choinski won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Jan Choinski - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 56.91%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Luka Mikrut - the odds 2.14 are the expected chance of winning is 43.09%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jan Choinski
ATP Challenger
02.06.26	Jan Choinski - Tom Gentzsch	2:0 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
20.05.26	Jan Choinski - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	Herbert P. Walkover ✺
19.05.26	Jan Choinski - Andres Andrade	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
17.05.26	Jan Choinski - Zsombor Piros	2:0 ✺
17.05.26	Jan Choinski - Arthur Fery	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 W?WWW
- Luka Mikrut
ATP Challenger
02.06.26	Luka Mikrut - Alex Marti Pujolras	2:0 ✺
02.06.26	Luka Mikrut - Kilian Feldbausch	Canceled ✺
ATP Roland Garros
19.05.26	Nerman Fatic - Luka Mikrut	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.05.26	Luka Mikrut - Chris Rodesch	0:2 ✺
13.05.26	Luka Mikrut - Justin Engel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 W?LLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
12.10.25	Jan Choinski - Luka Mikrut	2:1

Jan Choinski - Luka Mikrut: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide