Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday


	Hailey Baptiste		Jasmine Paolini

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.29	1.63
	2.42	1.66
	2.32	1.61	Watch
	2.3	1.62
	2.3	1.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.55)	1.64 ↑ (1.51)

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hailey Baptiste
41.3%

Jasmine Paolini
58.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

62.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

64.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hailey Baptiste has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Jasmine Paolini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hailey Baptiste than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hailey Baptiste that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jasmine Paolini than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jasmine Paolini could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Hailey Baptiste - Jasmine Paolini Predictions

Users Predictions: Jasmine Paolini will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Baptiste is ranked WTA: 32. Paolini is ranked WTA: 9.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Paolini will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Baptiste won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Jasmine Paolini - the odds 1.51 are the expected chance of winning is 62.76%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hailey Baptiste
WTA Madrid
23.04.26	Hailey Baptiste - Kaitlin Quevedo	2:0 ✺
WTA Rouen
16.04.26	Hailey Baptiste - Iryna Shymanovich	1:2 ✺
14.04.26	Hailey Baptiste - Jessika Ponchet	2:1 ✺
WTA Charleston
01.04.26	Hailey Baptiste - Renata Zarazua	1:2 ✺
WTA Miami
25.03.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Hailey Baptiste	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLWLL
- Jasmine Paolini
WTA Madrid
23.04.26	Laura Siegemund - Jasmine Paolini	1:2 ✺
WTA Stuttgart
15.04.26	Zeynep Sonmez - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
WTA Billie Jean King Cup World Group
11.04.26	Jasmine Paolini - Moyuka Uchijima	Canceled ✺
10.04.26	Jasmine Paolini - Himeno Sakatsume	0:2 ✺
WTA Miami
22.03.26	Jelena Ostapenko - Jasmine Paolini	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 WL?LL

Latest Head to Head

WTA Roland Garros
30.05.24	Hailey Baptiste - Jasmine Paolini	0:2
WTA Chicago 2
28.09.21	Hailey Baptiste - Jasmine Paolini	2:0

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