Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Sydney, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 November 2025, Monday


	Hayato Matsuoka		Bernard Tomic

	1	2
	3.5	1.29	Watch
	3.4	1.27	Watch
	3.66	1.28
	1.98	1.76	Watch
	3.49	1.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.21 ↑ (2.5)	1.37 ↓ (1.47)

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hayato Matsuoka
30%

Bernard Tomic
70%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

63%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

63.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hayato Matsuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hayato Matsuoka's form might have worsened.

Bernard Tomic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bernard Tomic's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hayato Matsuoka than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hayato Matsuoka, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bernard Tomic than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bernard Tomic, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Hayato Matsuoka - Bernard Tomic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Matsuoka is ranked ATP: 483. Tomic is ranked ATP: 182.

Matsuoka is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Tomic has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tomic may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hayato Matsuoka
ATP Challenger
16.11.25	Hayato Matsuoka - Taiyo Yamanaka	2:0 ✺
15.11.25	Hayato Matsuoka - Daniel Jovanovski	2:1 ✺
14.11.25	Tung-Lin Wu - Hayato Matsuoka	2:0 ✺
13.11.25	Jake Delaney - Hayato Matsuoka	0:2 ✺
11.11.25	Emile Hudd - Hayato Matsuoka	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWLWW
- Bernard Tomic
ATP Challenger
13.11.25	Bernard Tomic - Dane Sweeny	1:2 ✺
11.11.25	Bernard Tomic - Marek Gengel	2:1 ✺
10.11.25	Bernard Tomic - Li Tu	2:0 ✺
19.10.25	Fajing Sun - Bernard Tomic	Canceled ✺
ATP Almaty
13.10.25	Bernard Tomic - Corentin Moutet	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWW?L

Hayato Matsuoka - Bernard Tomic: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide