Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Ningbo, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 28 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Ningbo 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Hiroki Moriya		Mert Alkaya

	1	2
	2.60	1.44
	2.6	1.44
	2.52	1.46	Watch
	2.65	1.44
	2.6	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.28)	1.44 ↓ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hiroki Moriya
35.8%

Mert Alkaya
64.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.3%

59.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

56.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hiroki Moriya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Mert Alkaya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hiroki Moriya than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hiroki Moriya, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mert Alkaya than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mert Alkaya, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Hiroki Moriya - Mert Alkaya Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alkaya (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Moriya is ranked ATP: 482., and Alkaya is ranked ATP: 327..

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Moriya may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Alkaya holding a narrow advantage.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Hiroki Moriya - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.31%, but this team recently wins 15% of matches with these odds.

Mert Alkaya - the odds 1.54 are the expected chance of winning is 59.69%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hiroki Moriya
ATP Challenger
27.10.26	James McCabe - Hiroki Moriya	1:2 ✺
26.10.26	Hiroki Moriya - Timofei Derepasko	2:0 ✺
25.10.26	Hiroki Moriya - Taisei Ichikawa	2:0 ✺
18.10.26	Omar Jasika - Hiroki Moriya	2:0 ✺
06.10.26	Hiroki Moriya - Keisuke Saitoh	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWWLL
- Mert Alkaya
ATP Challenger
26.10.26	Rigele Te - Mert Alkaya	0:2 ✺
19.10.26	Mert Alkaya - Andre Ilagan	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
10.10.26	Matthew Dellavedova - Mert Alkaya	2:0 ✺
09.10.26	Mert Alkaya - Nino Ehrenschneider	2:1 ✺
08.10.26	Yan Cheng Chen - Mert Alkaya	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLLWW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mert Alkaya
ATP Challenger
29.10.26	Mert Alkaya - Yu Hsiou Hsu	✺

Hiroki Moriya - Mert Alkaya